Behavioral science tells us current events have a greater impact on our perception and decisions than the past. In 2022, investors are faced with extreme uncertainty given record inflation and recession fears. The stock market is pricing in that...Read more
Is the US Headed for a Recession?
After stellar economic growth in 2021, the US economy declined 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022 1. This was the first contraction of the economy since the beginning of the economic recovery in 2020. The S&P 500 is down 12.9%2 for the year...Read more
Should Investors Bail on Bonds?
Bonds are off to a rough start in 2022. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, the proxy for core US bonds, has declined nearly 6% in the first three months of 2022. This loss is compounded by those from 2021, when the index returned -1.5% for...Read more
Russia-Ukraine War: The Crude Awakening
• The Russia-Ukraine war has led to higher market volatility. However, the cost of an extended war and severe sanctions are likely to choke Russia’s small economy. • Despite a small economy, Russia has a significant contribution to global...Read more
The Uncertainty of War
The one thing that is certain when geopolitical events take hold is that uncertainty runs rife, and the one thing that investors and the markets don’t like is uncertainty. It’s during these times that market volatility picks up and emotional...Read more
On the Mark – Volatility: The Painful Return to Normal
After a stellar and unusually calm year for stocks in 2021, so far 2022 might appear almost chaotic by comparison, with markets experiencing a sharp correction in January. A quick survey of history reveals that this type of recent volatility is...Read more
The long-awaited unwinding road begins
In the November Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed policymakers left interest rates near zero but also announced a plan to start winding down or ‘tapering’ its bond purchasing program . What happens now? The Fed has been...Read more
Will Inflation Be Permanently Temporary?
Key Takeaways • Inflation remains an ongoing concern in 2021. • While inflation is higher and likely to remain elevated due to challenges created by the pandemic, a look into the structural composition and the types of inflation may provide...Read more
Addressing the Income Challenge
Key Takeaways Low interest rates are likely to persist, limiting the income and return from cash and government bonds. Investors need to remain flexible on ways to address the income challenge by expanding the idea of where you can look for...Read more
The stock market vs. the economy
Key Takeaways Fear of a COVID-19 led recession sent US stocks into the fastest bear market in history in March 2020. The stock market is typically a leading indicator, it tends to fall before the start of an economic recession and recover before...Read more
Keeping Calm During Market Volatility
Key Takeaways The one certainty of investing is that your portfolio will experience volatility. Volatility can often lead to irrational decisions, such as exiting markets prematurely. Evidence shows that market timing is a poor investment...Read more
Coronavirus and the Markets
Key Takeaways The Wuhan coronavirus has unnerved global equity markets so far in 2020. While still early, compared to the SARS outbreak in late 2002/early 2003, investors are concerned about the possible impact to economies and on markets...Read more