Russia-Ukraine War: The Crude Awakening

• The Russia-Ukraine war has led to higher market volatility. However, the cost of an extended war and severe sanctions are likely to choke Russia’s small economy.
• Despite a small economy, Russia has a significant contribution to global commodities, which could add to higher inflation. While this creates a quandary of competing forces of high inflation and a potential slowdown in growth from higher costs, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain focused on inflation and begin raising interest rates.
• Historically, geopolitical events have been a humanitarian disaster, but have had a short-lived effect on markets.

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